How’s The Naples Real Estate Market? Supplies rising and year over year prices – led by condo prices – down 2%

One year ago the average Naples property sold for $318,000.  This month we are at $309,000, a 2.83% year over year price decrease. As we reported in the blog these last few months, the double digit price spikes are behind us for now and the “flat price” cycle is upon us.

At the heart of property price behavior in any real estate market is supply and demand coupled with inventory levels. The Naples market inventory increased to 9+ months this period as trailing sales slowed.  This time last year supplies were much tighter at 6+ months.  Inventories at today’s level are still supportive of price increases but most of the near beach neighborhoods are flashing price warnings and we would sure like to see more buyers show up to knock down supply.

My weekly “walk around town” tells me the seasonal residents were here before Thanksgiving holiday but are now back up north for December – typical of most years.

In discussion with some of the new home builders I find the developers are in full stride and probably hurting the resale market at this point.  What is so interesting about buyers of newly constructed homes these days is most of these buyers live here already!  Developers were counting on larger numbers of up north buyers but a lot of trade is from people already here.  So what?  Well if the existing homeowners are moving to new construction this puts even more price pressure on the old homes.

The Lady Chadwick at Useppa
Enjoying the Lady Chadwick and her tour of the Big Sound.

Let’s start with the long term outlook. The longer term, big picture looks good for Florida and for Naples. Readers of the blog will know Naples welcomes more year round families, business professionals, and boomers these days – and why not with our fantastic climate, great lifestyles, favorable tax treatments, and statewide budget surpluses.

Helping with this migration the Naples Best Addresses team is supporting environmental work and building awareness to continue to improve Florida’s wonderful outdoor spaces – not to mention are new all electric team car.

Natural demand is driving real estate here and will be for sometime.  The long term future looks bright. Natural demand – as opposed to speculation – is again at the heart of this month’s numbers.  Even with many market uncertainties people are still buying homes in Naples – in fact 2,581 homes were purchased in the last four months.  Will the upcoming season bring an increase in demand? We will know in the next few months.

Let’s get behind our year over year price increase for ALL property types and understand the details.  Setting aside manufactured homes and focusing solely on single family homes and condos we find single family home prices FLAT this month and condo prices down slightly.  As more people move here full time we see a shift in demand from condo to single family homes.

Let’s look at price reductions.  Although buyers pay about 4% less than asking price for a listed property right now, the sellers had to work real hard to get there.  Sellers reduced prices from their original position a whopping 22%+ this month – about the same as last month.  That’s a lot of price concession!  What is going on here? Perhaps sellers started out more optimistically – or just threw in the towel – but sellers came down quite a bit before selling again this month.

What about supply? Our readers know supply levels should forecast short-term price trends. Over the last few months we saw a volume slow down coupled with more supply causing inventory levels to climb to 9+ months.  Readers may recall this figure last year was only 6+months.  Anything under 12 months should allow for price increases but we need to watch this inventory build up.

Prices should rise in a market with lower supply levels and decent volume.

Are the buyers done with the Naples price run up? Maybe. Prices have flattened and supplies are up – what will season bring?!

This is a great time to sell Naples property as serious buyers remain in the market – in fact, we closed the deal on another cottage style residence last month. If you are thinking about selling, call us at 239.595.3921. Our proven sales process model is working.  Why not see what it is all about?

Another data point to watch – property selling speed.  Looking at rates over an entire year things are slowing down. Now it takes 55 days to sell a place (on average) as opposed to 45 days at this time last year.

Lessons to sellers right now – get with a real estate team with a great marketing system AND price it right.   If you do not see offers or repeat visits in 4-6 weeks you might consider a price reduction.

Lessons to buyers right now – when approaching a property with a long on-market history it may mak sense to get aggressive on the offer price. Watch selling speed trends. All parties can learn from it.

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We say farewell to another great mini-season. ‘Til next year!

Our readers will remember our “canary in the mine” idea. During the last bust, condo prices dropped almost a full year BEFORE the single family home bust sp let’s see what these prices are doing today. Average condo prices dropped over last year’s prices from $262,500 to $254,000 or 3%+.   So … the canary is a little woozy and something to watch.  Will season liven up our bird?  We will see.

Consistent with a slowing condo price market, inventories slowed to 9.65 months supply from 8.22 months.  We do not like the combination of price decreases and growing supply in the condo market and we need to keep an eye on it.

Foreclosure rates are stable.  Not a big jump here and probably a function of the courts and our foreclosure process more than the market.  Good news nonetheless.
With flat single family home prices and decreasing condo prices are we in a bubble? Here is a question we get a lot – especially with looming Fed announcements, BREXIT, equity market gyrations, and a strong US dollar knocking out some international buyers.

Even with all the commotion we do not think we are in a real estate bubble in Naples. So no big drop ahead probably but maybe a slow down. Why? Inventory levels relative to volumes give us a lot of comfort. We do see decreasing volumes with increasing supplies – but no sharp moves yet.  It feels more like a normal market right now but we need to keep watching. Months of double digit price increases may be wearing out the buyers somewhat.

Will the party end one day? Of course. Perhaps suddenly. This is a boom and bust town. Watch the numbers with us. A few cracks are appearing unevenly in the figures. This is not last year’s market but no bust yet.

Ok, the big market data is interesting but what about the numbers neighborhood by neighborhood ? Our readers know all real estate is local – and the saying holds again this month.

The beach and near-beach neighborhoods are seeing some significant supply increases and may face downward price pressures.

Neighborhoods inland and a bit of a drive from the beach are fairing better from a supply standpoint and may see price increases. We need to dive deeper into each neighborhood to understand real estate in this beautiful paradise we call Naples.

Let’s go … Oh boy, more data!

Olde Naples – “I made up my mind to move to Naples as soon as I stepped out on that beach.”

Our first neighborhood stop is Olde Naples. Who doesn’t like Olde Naples? The “urbans” love to walk everywhere – beach, shops, restaurants with no car or even scooter. But … is real estate selling at these prices? Well, real estate is selling in Olde Naples but at slower rates. Inventories increased to 16.38 months and we are now above equilibrium – expect downward price pressures here.

Pelican Bay – “I love the tram to the beach and eating at the beach club!”

Pelican Bay also slowed with inventories rising to 14+ months from 10+ months.  Last year at this time supplies were tighter at 7+ months and we saw prices climb nicely.  Pelican Bay has experienced nine straight months of inventory build up and now supplies are increasing again. Expect prices to lower here in the short run.

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So thankful for the natural beauty of this place – an antique rose blooming wonderfully in the Florida sunshine.

Windstar On Naples Bay – “A one of kind community with a yacht club,  a golf course and a private shuttle to Keewaydin Island  – all on Naples Bay”

Inventories at Windstar on Naples Bay are up to 18 months. We reported last month some realtors encourage their sellers to take their properties off the market for the summer. We disagree with this approach.  How can you well something off the market!  Now these properties are back on the market and seasonal buyers are not here yet.  There is likely downward price pressure here for a while.

Crayton Road – “The charm of this near north side neighborhood away from the maddening crowd is truly wonderful”

The Crayton Road area inventory increased to 15+ months from 12+ months last month. Expect prices to pull back here until the buyers weigh in again.

Royal Harbor – “On water living and walkable to town and new development on the way”

If there is a bright spot in the numbers this month The Royal Harbor single family home market is certainly one of them. Supplies are much lower this month to 11+ months and the area holds so much future promise with the rise of the “Urbans” and a walkable culture coupled with new commercial developments in the area.  On water, single family homes, convenience to 5th avenue, a spa within walking distance and an ever-increasing Naples “downtown” footprint – there is a lot to like in this area.  Look for stable prices here.

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World-class, on water living in Naples, Florida. And yes, there are more of these.

Port Royal and Aqualane Shores – “one of the finest enclaves anywhere”

Port Royal and Aqualane Shores inventories increase to a whopping 41+ months!  After a brief dip this summer below 12 months and better price supports we now see inventory building.  Expect prices to drop and days on market to lengthen. The Port Royal Club, the beach and the sense of privacy on a peninsula in the bay is remarkable but we needs some buyers.

Marco Island – “island life and the beach at Tiger Tail offer a remarkable experience.”

Marco Island inventories increased to 14+ months from 11+ months. For all my dear friends and realtors on Marco who bust my chops on these numbers take heart! – the island is a great place to live. Houses and condos may be less pricey on the island compared to Naples and include incredible boating, golf, tennis and beach lifestyles. Check it out with us – there is a lot to love about Marco Island but expect some price pull backs here.

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Marco Island can be a lot of fun, including running your sportfish with friends to an on-water lunch.

What we continue to find interesting on Marco Island is the struggling luxury single family home market – defined as properties above $2,000,000. Many of these properties offer incredible bay views. Inventories are now at 33+ months but  down from an eye-popping 100+ months  not too long ago. If you like the Island and you are looking for a great place, prices should continue to drop here. The market is adjusting but you could find some real deals here with us.

In addition to our monthly neighborhood analysis we would like to provide a few more points of view to help our sellers and buyers.

The big market dynamic of new construction continues and perhaps we are now overbuilt slightly.  It is tough to capture real data from the developers but the scuttlebutt is we are out over our skis a little too far right now.  New construction eats into the re-sale market and may explain some of the caution signals.

After the bust and the demise of many a builder in the Great Recession, it took a while for the new home builders to bounce back. By bounce back I mean once they were ready to return they still needed to draw up new floor plans to match new market preferences, obtain permits, clear land and build infrastructure, hire the sales teams and build homes.  They have so much momentum now they are finally putting a real dent in the existing home market. It is estimated (and it is only an estimate as these figures are very hard to track) about 50% of all new home sales right now are new construction.

My friend Rich in his Austin Healey
Feel free to bring your favorite car with you to Naples, you will fit right in.

Now here is the interesting part. Even with the all of the new construction there is still support for price increases in the re-sale market. Not as much support as last month perhaps, but support remains.

A few things sellers need to know. Aggressively priced properties in poor condition are not selling very well.  Who wants to be forced to make 17-20% price concessions with snail like selling speeds? A seller and I reviewed numbers together a while back and found some properties were on the market for more than 200 days! Sellers of homes with slow selling speeds are competing with beautiful new construction and your neighbor’s well priced homes. Don’t get too greedy if you need to sell your home or you may be on the market for a while. Don’t give it away, of course, but price it well and keep it in good condition.

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Buyers better be ready to buy when well-priced properties like this one come on the market – our marketing process helped sell this home for a great price.

Buyers in this market better know their local markets.  Why? Because buyers are competing with other well financed and savvy buyers. Know thy markets! For the buyers, cash is king (a pre-approved financing letter is helpful) but whatever you do, get with a real estate team like ours and learn about the market. In addition, use our online search tool recommendation and be ready to make a same day offer when you find your place. Speed wins here and the old adage “Time Kills All Deals” is in full force in many areas.

The International Award Winning, Naples Best Addresses Team at Coldwell Banker

Like this story? Join the thousands of others who read our free monthly newsletter or click here for your free copy of our eBook “Understanding Naples Real Estate.”

Like to talk with a human for a change? Why not pick up the phone and catch up with us and let us know how we can help you.  Just give us a call at 239.595.3920 (Nan) or 239.595.3921 (Mark) or 239.285.2038 (David).

All the best,

Nan, Megan, Dave and Mark
Co-Founders Naples Best Addresses
Coldwell Banker
Provided by Mark Goebel, PA
REALTOR Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South
Mobile: 239.595.3921
NaplesBestAddresses.com
Facebook: NaplesBestAddresses
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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog. Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.

We are pleased to announce a portion of our real estate earnings go to support the The Naples Botanical Garden, Habitat for Humanity Collier County, The Naples Winter Wine Festival and other important non-profits.

Some of the data related to Naples homes for sale and Naples real estate for sale on the NaplesBestAddresses.com website comes in part from the Broker reciprocity program of M.L.S. of Naples, Inc. The properties displayed here may not be all the properties available through the MLS reciprocity Program. This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Buyers and sellers are responsible for verifying all information about their purchase prior to closing.

Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 40 years of visiting and living in Naples.

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Three60 Market – An Anchor of the Bayshore Arts District

Walk into Three60 Market in the heart of the Bayshore Arts District and you will be greeted with a welcoming smile and a “hello”.  The bright green building on Bayshore Drive offers a patio overlooking the water and is adorned with lovely landscaping.  There aren’t many cars here on a Thursday mid-morning, but don’t let that fool you, there is quite a group inside.  I see a few bikes and others in their walking shoes.  This is part of what makes the Bayshore Arts District great.  You can walk or bike to get your morning cup of coffee and breakfast.  (There is a nice parking lot, too, which starts to fill up around lunchtime).

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You can order your food when you walk in or, like me, get stuck ogling over the food on display in the glass cases.  Everything is fresh and delicious, its hard to choose. This morning, I decided on a the traditional Eggs Benedict, the hollandaise has some spice to it and the entire plate is beautiful.  I ate it before I remembered to take a picture!  I finished it all off with an iced coffee, which was perfect for sitting outside in the warm sunshine in the colorful chairs on the patio.

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A delicious iced coffee enjoy outside.

Three60 market is one of the anchors of the Bayshore Arts District and is not only known for its delicious food and welcoming atmosphere, but also for the “BEST wine pricing in Naples – PERIOD!”.  You can sign up to become a Three60 Wine Insider and receive invites to special wine tastings and special pricing on wine. It truly is the best wine pricing in Naples and I saw a few people just stop in quickly to pick up their wine deliveries.

Being on the water, there are also a few open boat slips to arrive for lunch in style.  Don’t forget you can order your lunch or dinner to go. Three60 Market is open from 8am-5pm daily (closed on Mondays).

Rebecca Maddox, the owner, has big plans for the Bayshore Arts District.  She has plans to turn an empty piece of land across from Three60 Market into a place for food trucks to park and offer their food.  Food truck “parks” have become very popular in cities like Austin, TX and have been making their way to Naples.  This will be a great place to meet up with friends and try many different kinds of flavors in one spot.

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One of the colorful patios outside of Three60 Market.

The food truck park along with Three60 Market will continue draw people to this wonderful part of Naples that is being redeveloped.  It’s in a great location just off of 41, close to downtown, and close to the upcoming TRIO and The Prom entertainment centers.

Three60 Market is a great place to stop by for a bite and we look forward to more to come in the Bayshore Arts District.

Make sure to follow us on Instagram (naplesbestaddresses) so you can see all of our pictures around the Bayshore Arts District and other parts of Naples.

Enjoy the week!

Megan Goebel

Like this story? Join the thousands of others who read our free monthly newsletter or click here for your free copy of our eBook “Understanding Naples Real Estate.”

 

 

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Our Favorite Listings

Looking to live on the water? New construction? Want a lot to build on? We have an array of choices for you here in Naples.  Take a look at our favorite listings and give us a call so we can set up your private showing and find the perfect home for you.

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New Construction in Bayshore Arts District

Presenting the Bahama Cottage. New construction, single family home, for an incredible value. A fantastic opportunity to get into The Island Cottages in a Naples Bay Village before the prices go up for the next phase. This second Island Cottage has moved from the pre-construction phase to under construction. Some details and finishes are still fully customizable. First floor master, open floor plan, classic front porch, private outdoor screened lanai in the back, this home has it all and does it with an island cottage charm that is sure to capture your heart. Oversized lot has ample room for a garage, pool, guest house, boat storage, or just enjoy the beautiful landscaping and open feel. This is a new walkable community in the heart of the Bayshore Arts District. Walk to the Botanical Gardens, 360 Market, Sugden park, the bayside waterfront park and boat launch, and so much more! This is a major infill development going in on Jeepers with a sale already pending and more phases to be released soon. Call today for more information on other opportunities. Come get the Bahama Cottage before it is gone!

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Treviso Bay Lot for Luxury Build

Best lot in Naples! What an opportunity to get exactly what you want. No mandatory golf membership and you can use your own builder in the beautiful Lipari neighborhood in Treviso Bay. Great opportunity for anyone who wants to build a luxury home for themselves or investors. The lot is located on a beautiful cul-de-sac at the end of a quiet street nestled in with beautiful newer estate homes. This is essentially the last great opportunity to build in the neighborhood. No other construction noise or risk of the neighbors not building. Even without having to pay for the golf membership this lot has access to many of the community’s amazing amenities including Resort style pools, club house, bar and restaurant, tennis, bocce, private beach, fitness center, lap pool, full service spa and so much more! Minimum living space requirement for the neighborhood is 3250 sq/ft. Terrific value at this price, seller wants it sold! Come see it today before it is gone.

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New Construction, No HOA

Another new construction Cozy Cottage fresh on the market! The last Gebelhoff Group home sold so fast we had to list another one. Close your eyes and imagine the quintessential Florida cottage. Now open them because this is it, and you are home. This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom builder model has too many upgrades to list. Open floor plan, granite, stainless steel, beautiful bathrooms, tile, porches, and two car garage, need we say more? Unique street allows for, but does not require, business and residential mixed use in same home. Perfect for a small business owner that wants to work out of their home, or anyone just looking for a great house. It could also make for a nice rental or a lease back to the builder may be possible so they can continue to use it as a model. So many options!

Full Tour: http://tours.napleskenny.com/public/vtour/display/607440

Tiburon – Luxury Living in the Ritz Carlton Golf Community

Enjoy the privacy of Escada Court at the Ritz Carlton Tiburon combining one of the most desirable locations on the 14th hole with this “gate behind the gate” community. A beautiful and unique estate home designed by Stofft Cooney and built by Artisan Associates with marble flooring, open kitchen and expansive design. Complimenting a beautiful interior space, the home opens up into a large lanai with electronic screen enclosures, fireplace, flat screen television and summer kitchen – all perfect for entertaining and capturing Naples outdoor living. The home is conveniently located in North Naples, a short distance to the restaurants and shops at Mercato and Naples beaches. Exclusive and private Naples living convenient to all the Naples lifestyle has to offer. Memberships at the Ritz Carlton Tiburon are available. As one of the best luxury golf resorts in the state, Tiburon features two beautiful PGA-level golf courses which host two major professional golf tournaments annually.

Full Tour: http://tours.napleskenny.com/public/vtour/display/594760

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Imperial Golf – Great Location

Perfect home for entertaining or enjoying family gatherings. Open concept living and dining area overlook the large pool and spa. Quiet neighborhood in North Naples is convenient to beach, shopping and dining. Golf or social memberships at Imperial Golf Club are available, but not required.

Full Tour: http://tours.napleskenny.com/607778

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Verona Walk – Fantastic Upgrades and Award Winning Amenities

Welcome home! Enjoy gorgeous fountain views from your heated pool inside a private screened lanai. Cook for guests in your upgraded kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances and a wide open floor plan. Live worry free with alarm system, hurricane shutters, and manned gate house. Award winning community with tennis courts, resort pool, fitness club, lakeside town center with cafe, salon, performing arts center, bank, post office, and much more! Venture out of your two car garage and you are just minutes from some of the world’s greatest dining, shopping, beaches, and more. Close to the highway and airport. This DiVosta built Capri lives like brand new. Originally a builder’s model in 2004 with all the bells and whistles. Too many upgrades to list. This is the nicest Capri in Verona Walk. Offered with the beautiful furniture negotiable.

Photo Tour: http://tours.napleskenny.com/public/vtour/display/552531

Also, check out our walking tour: https://youtu.be/JBzgjF_HJnc

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New Waterfront Construction – Lowest Priced Home of its Type in Naples!

New waterfront construction. British West Indies styled home with over 3000 sq./ft, four bedrooms, four bathrooms and less than 5 minutes from downtown Naples and the beach. Beautiful water views from the great room with vaulted ceilings, and hardwood floors. Gourmet kitchen with stone counters and stainless appliances opens to great room, giving an expansive feel. Large master bedroom with water views, tray ceilings and two walk in closets. Custom master bath features, stone floors, dual vanities, shower and soaking tub. Great outdoor living on the covered stone lanai with fireplace, kitchen, and heated pool and spa. A boaters dream with a 75 foot seawall on a deep canal just off of Naples Bay, minutes from the Gulf with no bridges.  More photos: http://tours.napleskenny.com/public/vtour/full/363359/

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A Wonderful Week in Naples – Hats in the Garden, Acai, and Boating

Every week I am trying to get out on the town and experience new things in Naples that I haven’t done before.  This week, again, we had perfect weather for lots of activities:

Hats in the Garden

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Nan and I attended Hats in the Garden this week.  This annual luncheon raised money this year for a market garden.  Special needs children can grow produce to sell in their own market stand. The large white tent held more than 500 women (and a few men) for lunch, followed by a fashion show put on by Saks. It was a great event!
Sunset on the Boat
Naples has some of the best sunsets but I was too busy enjoying it that I forgot to take a picture this week when we went on the boat!  Here’s a picture of the Naples Pier instead.  It’s always fun being on the boat in weather like we’ve been having lately. img_4134
The Bowl

I think The Bowl has been around for a couple of years now in Naples, however, this was my first time there.  It serves acai bowls, cold brew coffee, and smoothies.  Here’s a picture of the Key West bowl.  So yummy with fresh fruit, granola, coconut shavings, and honey.   fullsizerender

Make sure to follow us on Instagram (naplesbestaddresses) so you can see all of our pictures about Naples lifestyle and real estate.

Enjoy the week!

Megan Goebel

Like this story? Join the thousands of others who read our free monthly newsletter or click here for your free copy of our eBook “Understanding Naples Real Estate.”

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A Wonderful Week in Naples – A new school, a parade, the beach, and 5th avenue

The sun is up and the thermometer says 70.  It’s the perfect weather to sleep with the slider doors and windows open at night and then sit out on the lanai in the morning, drink coffee, reflect on the past week and prepare for the week ahead.  Naples has so many offerings that it is hard to make it to everything that peaks our interest, but we certainly have fun trying.  Here’s a few of things that kept us busy in Naples this week:

Bayshore Arts District Montessori School Groundbreaking 

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The groundbreaking of the new montessori school, The Garden School, in the Bayshore Arts District.

The Garden School of Naples had its groundbreaking ceremony on Wednesday, November 2nd.  The preschool,  located in the Bayshore Arts District (6051 Bayshore Drive), brings the first Montessori style education school to south Naples.  It was really a lot of fun attending this event and meeting so many people that are putting children’s educations high on their priority list.  Kathy Khatib, the Director of the school, was there to welcome guests, which included people such as a representative from the Botanical Garden across the street to neighbors excited about a school in the neighborhood.  Overall, the feeling was excitement and anxiousness to get started.  It was a great moment!

 Beach and Boat Day

We took the boat day out this week for a quick trip to the beach to stick our feet in the sand and water.  It was busy out on the water!  We saw a lot of boats on our way to and from Key Wayden Island. We love to see people enjoying the Gulf of Mexico and Naples Bay.

 Busy Night on 5th Avenue, Downtown

Saturday night brought us to 5th avenue.  We were at a friends house nearby for a quick stop and decided at the last minute to head downtown for dinner.  My goodness were we surprised at how busy it was!  Luckily, there are 2 free parking garages just off of 5th avenue  (8th Street South at 6th Avenue, and on 8th Street South at 4th Avenue) and so we were able to get a parking spot right away.  We walked the half block to 5th avenue and looked around for a tasty spot to eat.  We wanted to try a new Italian restaurant, however, the wait was 1 hour.  It smelled delicious and it was a packed house, so it must be good!  Don’t let the wait time and busyness deter you from downtown Naples! Just learn from our mistake that you should be sure to make your reservations this Season.  We ended getting lucky and finding some bar stools at an old standby, Bistro 821, and had a delicious dinner.

Swamp Buggy Parade

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The swamp buggy parade.

Due to flooding, the swamp buggy races for the Fall have been canceled.  However, the parade that typically precedes the races still happened and we were there!  There was a band, lots of swamp buggies, and of course, the swamp buggy queen!  We’ve had a lot of fun at the swamp buggy races in the past – read more about this old Florida tradition in this post.

We have some fun events coming up this week! Make sure to follow us on Instagram (naplesbestaddresses) so you can see all of our pictures about Naples lifestyle and real estate.

Enjoy the week!

Megan Goebel

Like this story? Join the thousands of others who read our free monthly newsletter or click here for your free copy of our eBook “Understanding Naples Real Estate.”

 

 

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How’s The Naples Market? Prices Up And More Homes On The Market For Season.

One year ago the average Naples property sold for $287,500.  This month we are at $299,000 for a 4.31% year over year price increase – not the double digit price spikes we saw in past months but indicative of our new “flat price” cycle reported last month.

At the heart of any market is supply and demand coupled with inventory levels. The Naples market inventory increased to 8+ months this period as trailing sales slowed in the summer months and snowbirds returning early placed their homes up for sale.  The numbers are supportive of price increases but we need to see more buyers show up to knock down supply.

My weekly “walk around town” tells me business is there – just a little harder to find than last year.  My discussion with a county leader last month telling me new construction may be slightly over built still weighs on my mind.  The resale market and the new construction market are clearly in fierce competition with “deals” in the new world and growing supply in the old world. Let’s take a look at the latest results in detail and see what it all means.

The Lady Chadwick at Useppa

Enjoying the Lady Chadwick and her tour of the Big Sound.

Let’s start with the long term outlook. The longer term, big picture looks good for Florida and for Naples. Readers of the blog will know Naples welcomes more year round families, business professionals, and boomers these days – and why not with our fantastic climate, great lifestyles, favorable tax treatments, and statewide budget surpluses.  The Naples Best Addresses team is supporting environmental work and building awareness to continue to improve Florida’s wonderful outdoor spaces. Natural demand is driving real estate here and will be for sometime.  The long term future looks bright.

Natural demand – as opposed to speculation – is again at the heart of this month’s numbers.  Even with many market uncertainties people are still buying homes in Naples – in fact 2,581 homes were purchased in the last four months which is down from 2,830 sales at this time last year. Volume slow-downs need watching.  Are bur waiting for the elections to complete? Will the upcoming season bring an increase in demand? We will know in the next few months.

Let’s get behind our year over year price increase for ALL property types and understand the details.  Setting aside manufactured homes and focusing solely on single family homes and condos we find single family home prices down this month and condo prices up slightly.  This is the same result we saw last month. As more people move here full time, we will see if single family homes regain their price footing.

Let’s look at price reductions.  Although buyers pay about 4% less than asking price for a listed property right now, the sellers had to work real hard to get there.  Sellers reduced prices from their original position a whopping 22%+ this month.  That’s a lot of price concessions and follows last months 16% concessions.  What is going on here? Perhaps sellers started out more optimistically – or just threw in the towel – but sellers came down quite a bit before selling this month again.

What about supply? Our readers know supply levels should forecast short-term price trends. Over the last few months we saw a volume slow down coupled with more supply causing inventory levels to climb again to 8+ months.  This is an excellent result for the end of the slow season.  Readers may recall this figure last year was all the way up to 15+ months.  Anything under 12 months should allow for price increases but we need to watch inventory and advent of season – it would be nice to see a drop.

 

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Prices should rise in a market with lower supply levels and decent volume.

Readers of the blog will know prices and trends differ street by street or condo building by condo building. Each month we take a look at Naples real estate market trends in a very detailed neighborhood by neighborhood manner.  Here we go again!
Are the buyers done with the Naples price run up? Maybe not.  Prices are up again in the slow months – what will season bring?!

This is a great time to sell Naples property as serious buyers remain in the market – in fact, we closed the deal on another cottage style residence last week. If you are thinking about selling, call us at 239.595.3921. Our proven sales process model is working.  Why not see what it is all about?

Another data point to watch – property selling speed slowed further this month. Now it takes 65 days to sell a place (on average) as opposed to 37 days back in May.  This is the slowest selling speed I have seen since October 2014.  Lessons to sellers right now – get with a real estate team with a great marketing system AND price it right.   If you do not see offers or repeat visits in 4-6 weeks you might consider a price reduction. There is also a lesson for a buyer in this. When approaching a property with a long on-market history it may makes sense to get aggressive on the offer price. Watch selling speed trends. All parties can learn from it.

 

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We say farewell to another great mini-season. ‘Till next year!

A bright spot for a second straight month – condo prices. Remember our “canary in the mine” idea? Readers of the blog will know during the last bust, condo prices dropped almost a full year BEFORE the single family home bust. Average condo prices actually popped back up this month for the first time in a while.  So … the canary is chirping and alive and well again.  We will keep watching this one.

Condo inventories are at 8.22 months – supportive of more price increases.  Perhaps we are through our “normal” condo price adjustment and we are now on firmer footing.  We will see.
Foreclosure rates are stable.  Not a big jump here and probably a function of the courts and our foreclosure process more than the market.  We will keep an eye on the “canary”.

With the decrease in single family home prices are we in a bubble? Here is a question we get a lot – especially with looming Fed announcements, BREXIT, equity market gyrations, and a strong US dollar knocking out some international buyers.

 

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Natural demand still finds jaw dropping beauty in the Florida sunshine.

Even with all the commotion we do not think we are in a real estate bubble in Naples. Why? Inventory levels relative to volumes give us a lot of comfort. We do see decreasing volumes with increasing supplies – but no sharp moves yet.  It feels more like a normal market right now but we need to keep watching. Months of double digit price increases may be wearing out the buyers somewhat.

Will the party end one day? Of course. Perhaps suddenly. This is a boom and bust town. Watch the numbers with us. A few cracks are appearing unevenly in the figures. This is not last year’s market but no bust yet.

Ok, the big market data is interesting but what about the numbers neighborhood by neighborhood ? Our readers know all real estate is local – and the saying holds again this month. Some neighborhoods are fighting higher inventories and others showed real improvement this month. We need to dive deeper into each neighborhood to understand real estate in this beautiful paradise we call Naples. Let’s go … Oh boy, more data!

Olde Naples – “I made up my mind to move to Naples as soon as I stepped out on that beach.”

Our first neighborhood stop is Olde Naples. Who doesn’t like Olde Naples? The “urbans” love to walk everywhere – beach, shops, restaurants with no car or even scooter. But … is real estate selling at these prices? Well, real estate is selling in Olde Naples but at slower rates. Inventories increased to 11.92 months and we are now at price equilibrium – where prices should move sideways for a while – neither up or down.

Pelican Bay – “I love the tram to the beach and eating at the beach club!”

Pelican Bay also slowed with inventories rising to 10+ months.  Last year at this time supplies were tight at 3+ months and we saw prices climb nicely.  Pelican Bay then experienced nine straight months of inventory build up and now supplies are increasing again. Price appreciation potential is there but with less enthusiasm than last year.

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So thankful for the natural beauty of this place – an antique rose blooming wonderfully in the Florida sunshine.

Windstar On Naples Bay – “A one of kind community with a yacht club,  a golf course and a private shuttle to Keewaydin Island  – all on Naples Bay”

Inventories at Windstar on Naples Bay are up to 16 months. We reported last month some realtors encourage their sellers to take their properties off the market for the summer. We disagree with this approach.  How can you well something off the market!  Now these properties are back on the market and seasonal buyers are not here yet.  There is likely downward price pressure here for a while.

Crayton Road – “The charm of this near north side neighborhood away from the maddening crowd is truly wonderful”

The Crayton Road area inventory increased to 10+ months from 8+ months last month. Not bad really considering the area whittled down the inventory from 10 months not too long ago. If volumes hold expect more price appreciation in this beautiful area.

Royal Harbor –On water living and walkable to town and new development on the way”

The Royal Harbor single family home inventory continues to face challenges. Supplies are higher this month at 18+ months from 17+ months last month.  This area holds so much future promise with the rise of the “Urbans” and a walkable culture coupled with new commercial developments in the area.  On water, single family homes, convenience to 5th avenue, a spa within walking distance and an ever-increasing Naples “downtown” footprint – there is a lot to like in this area.

 

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World-class, on water living in Naples, Florida. And yes, there are more of these.

Port Royal and Aqualane Shores – “one of the finest enclaves anywhere”

Port Royal and Aqualane Shores inventories increase to 22+ months.  After a brief dip this summer below 12 months and better price supports we now see inventory building.  Expect prices to drop and days on market to lengthen. The Port Royal Club, the beach and the sense of privacy on a peninsula in the bay is remarkable.

Marco Island – “island life and the beach at Tiger Tail offer a remarkable experience.”

Marco Island inventories increased to 11+ months from 10+ months. For all my dear friends and realtors on Marco who bust my chops on these numbers take heart! – the island is a great place to live. Houses and condos may be less pricey on the island compared to Naples and include incredible boating, golf, tennis and beach lifestyles. Check it out with us – there is a lot to love about Marco Island.

 

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Marco Island can be a lot of fun, including running your sportfish with friends to an on-water lunch.

What we continue to find interesting on Marco Island is the struggling luxury single family home market – defined as properties above $2,000,000. Many of these properties offer incredible bay views. Inventories are now at 21+ months but  down from an eye-popping 100+ months  not too long ago. If you like the Island and you are looking for a great place, prices should continue to drop here. The market is adjusting but you could find some real deals here with us.

In addition to our monthly neighborhood analysis we would like to provide a few more points of view to help our sellers and buyers.

The big market dynamic of new construction continues and perhaps we are now overbuilt slightly.  It is tough to capture real data from the developers but the scuttlebutt is we are out over our skis a little too far right now.  New construction eats into the re-sale market and may explain some of the caution signals.

After the bust and the demise of many a builder in the Great Recession, it took a while for the new home builders to bounce back. By bounce back I mean once they were ready to return they still needed to draw up new floor plans to match new market preferences, obtain permits, clear land and build infrastructure, hire the sales teams and build homes.  They have so much momentum now they are finally putting a real dent in the existing home market. It is estimated (and it is only an estimate as these figures are very hard to track) about 50% of all new home sales right now are new construction.

 

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Feel free to bring your favorite car with you to Naples, you will fit right in.

Now here is the interesting part. Even with the all of the new construction there is still support for price increases in the re-sale market. Not as much support as last month perhaps, but support remains.

A few things sellers need to know. Aggressively priced properties in poor condition are not selling very well.  Who wants to be forced to make 17-20% price concessions with snail like selling speeds? A seller and I reviewed numbers together a while back and found some properties were on the market for more than 200 days! Sellers of homes with slow selling speeds are competing with beautiful new construction and your neighbor’s well priced homes. Don’t get too greedy if you need to sell your home or you may be on the market for a while. Don’t give it away, of course, but price it well and keep it in good condition.

 

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Buyers better be ready to buy when well-priced properties like this one come on the market – our marketing process helped sell this home for a great price.

Buyers in this market better know their local Naples markets.  Why? Because buyers are competing with other well financed and savvy buyers. Know thy markets! For the buyers, cash is king (a pre-approved financing letter is helpful) but whatever you do, get with a real estate team like ours and learn about the market. In addition, use our online search tool recommendation and be ready to make a same day offer when you find your place. Speed wins here and the old adage “Time Kills All Deals” is in full force in many areas.

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The International Award Winning, Naples Best Addresses Team at Coldwell Banker

Like this story? Join the thousands of others who read our free monthly newsletter or click here for your free copy of our eBook “Understanding Naples Real Estate.”

Like to talk with a human for a change? Why not pick up the phone and catch up with us and let us know how we can help you.  Just give us a call at 239.595.3920 (Nan) or 239.595.3921 (Mark) or 239.285.2038 (David).

All the best,
Nan, Megan, Dave and Mark
Co-Founders Naples Best Addresses
Coldwell Banker

Provided by Mark Goebel, PA
REALTOR Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South
Mobile: 239.595.3921
NaplesBestAddresses.com
Facebook: NaplesBestAddresses
Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/user/naplesbestaddresses?feature=results_main

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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog. Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.

We are pleased to announce a portion of our real estate earnings go to support the The Naples Botanical Garden, Habitat for Humanity Collier County, The Naples Winter Wine Festival and other important non-profits.

Some of the data related to Naples homes for sale and Naples real estate for sale on the NaplesBestAddresses.com website comes in part from the Broker reciprocity program of M.L.S. of Naples, Inc. The properties displayed here may not be all the properties available through the MLS reciprocity Program. This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Buyers and sellers are responsible for verifying all information about their purchase prior to closing.

Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 40 years of visiting and living in Naples.

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Our Favorite Listings

Naples continues to grow and we are seeing everyone move here from young families to retirees.  We have something for everyone here in Naples – close to the beach, two stories or ranch homes, full amenity neighborhoods, or no HOA, and beautiful lots ready to build. Take a peek at our listings and give us a call so we can set up your private showing and find the perfect home for you.

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New Construction in Bayshore Arts District

Presenting the Bahama Cottage. New construction, single family home, for an incredible value. A fantastic opportunity to get into The Island Cottages in a Naples Bay Village before the prices go up for the next phase. This second Island Cottage has moved from the pre-construction phase to under construction. Some details and finishes are still fully customizable. First floor master, open floor plan, classic front porch, private outdoor screened lanai in the back, this home has it all and does it with an island cottage charm that is sure to capture your heart. Oversized lot has ample room for a garage, pool, guest house, boat storage, or just enjoy the beautiful landscaping and open feel. This is a new walkable community in the heart of the Bayshore Arts District. Walk to the Botanical Gardens, 360 Market, Sugden park, the bayside waterfront park and boat launch, and so much more! This is a major infill development going in on Jeepers with a sale already pending and more phases to be released soon. Call today for more information on other opportunities. Come get the Bahama Cottage before it is gone!

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Treviso Bay Lot for Luxury Build

Best lot in Naples! What an opportunity to get exactly what you want. No mandatory golf membership and you can use your own builder in the beautiful Lipari neighborhood in Treviso Bay. Great opportunity for anyone who wants to build a luxury home for themselves or investors. The lot is located on a beautiful cul-de-sac at the end of a quiet street nestled in with beautiful newer estate homes. This is essentially the last great opportunity to build in the neighborhood. No other construction noise or risk of the neighbors not building. Even without having to pay for the golf membership this lot has access to many of the community’s amazing amenities including Resort style pools, club house, bar and restaurant, tennis, bocce, private beach, fitness center, lap pool, full service spa and so much more! Minimum living space requirement for the neighborhood is 3250 sq/ft. Terrific value at this price, seller wants it sold! Come see it today before it is gone.

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New Construction, No HOA

Another new construction Cozy Cottage fresh on the market! The last Gebelhoff Group home sold so fast we had to list another one. Close your eyes and imagine the quintessential Florida cottage. Now open them because this is it, and you are home. This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom builder model has too many upgrades to list. Open floor plan, granite, stainless steel, beautiful bathrooms, tile, porches, and two car garage, need we say more? Unique street allows for, but does not require, business and residential mixed use in same home. Perfect for a small business owner that wants to work out of their home, or anyone just looking for a great house. It could also make for a nice rental or a lease back to the builder may be possible so they can continue to use it as a model. So many options!

Full Tour: http://tours.napleskenny.com/public/vtour/display/607440

Tiburon – Luxury Living in the Ritz Carlton Golf Community

Enjoy the privacy of Escada Court at the Ritz Carlton Tiburon combining one of the most desirable locations on the 14th hole with this “gate behind the gate” community. A beautiful and unique estate home designed by Stofft Cooney and built by Artisan Associates with marble flooring, open kitchen and expansive design. Complimenting a beautiful interior space, the home opens up into a large lanai with electronic screen enclosures, fireplace, flat screen television and summer kitchen – all perfect for entertaining and capturing Naples outdoor living. The home is conveniently located in North Naples, a short distance to the restaurants and shops at Mercato and Naples beaches. Exclusive and private Naples living convenient to all the Naples lifestyle has to offer. Memberships at the Ritz Carlton Tiburon are available. As one of the best luxury golf resorts in the state, Tiburon features two beautiful PGA-level golf courses which host two major professional golf tournaments annually.

Full Tour: http://tours.napleskenny.com/public/vtour/display/594760

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Imperial Golf – Great Location

Perfect home for entertaining or enjoying family gatherings. Open concept living and dining area overlook the large pool and spa. Quiet neighborhood in North Naples is convenient to beach, shopping and dining. Golf or social memberships at Imperial Golf Club are available, but not required.

Full Tour: http://tours.napleskenny.com/607778

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Verona Walk – Fantastic Upgrades and Award Winning Amenities

Welcome home! Enjoy gorgeous fountain views from your heated pool inside a private screened lanai. Cook for guests in your upgraded kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances and a wide open floor plan. Live worry free with alarm system, hurricane shutters, and manned gate house. Award winning community with tennis courts, resort pool, fitness club, lakeside town center with cafe, salon, performing arts center, bank, post office, and much more! Venture out of your two car garage and you are just minutes from some of the world’s greatest dining, shopping, beaches, and more. Close to the highway and airport. This DiVosta built Capri lives like brand new. Originally a builder’s model in 2004 with all the bells and whistles. Too many upgrades to list. This is the nicest Capri in Verona Walk. Offered with the beautiful furniture negotiable.

Photo Tour: http://tours.napleskenny.com/public/vtour/display/552531

Also, check out our walking tour: https://youtu.be/JBzgjF_HJnc

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New Waterfront Construction – Lowest Priced Home of its Type in Naples!

New waterfront construction. British West Indies styled home with over 3000 sq./ft, four bedrooms, four bathrooms and less than 5 minutes from downtown Naples and the beach. Beautiful water views from the great room with vaulted ceilings, and hardwood floors. Gourmet kitchen with stone counters and stainless appliances opens to great room, giving an expansive feel. Large master bedroom with water views, tray ceilings and two walk in closets. Custom master bath features, stone floors, dual vanities, shower and soaking tub. Great outdoor living on the covered stone lanai with fireplace, kitchen, and heated pool and spa. A boaters dream with a 75 foot seawall on a deep canal just off of Naples Bay, minutes from the Gulf with no bridges.  More photos: http://tours.napleskenny.com/public/vtour/full/363359/

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